BY JOHN R. BRYSON

Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography

Birmingham Business School

University of Birmingham, U.K.

ULTIMATELY, the Russian war with Ukraine will come to an end. Too many innocent lives will have been destroyed and many people will have been killed. The fallout of this unnecessary war must include holding all those responsible to account.

Currently, Russia and Ukraine are trying to develop a negotiated solution that would be agreeable to both nations. For the Russian President Vladimir Putin, the focus is on hiding the fact that his plan failed as he underestimated the military strength and resolve of the Ukrainian people. He overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military and was somewhat surprised by the co-ordinated response that has emerged over the imposition of sanctions on Russia. Putin also very much underestimated Ukraine’s President [Volodymyr] Zelensky. Zelensky has emerged as the leader that Putin could never be – a leader with courage in the face of adversary and one close to the people that he leads. President Putin’s leadership is focused too much on his own personal and political safety rather than the safety of the Russian people.

For President Putin, the primary focus is on developing an outcome to the Ukrainian crisis that he created that will enable him to declare victory. Nevertheless, Putin knows, and all informed people know, that Russia has been disgraced and discredited. The blame for this disgrace lies squarely on President Putin’s shoulders.

A negotiated victory for President Putin includes trying to maintain social order across Russia based on some victorious Ukrainian outcome. There are perhaps two options here. On the one hand, Russia may continue to bombard Ukraine converting cities to wastelands. This might ultimately result in some form of victory, but at what cost to the Ukrainian and Russian people? On the other hand, a negotiated settlement might be reached between President Putin and President Zelensky that would include some form of Ukrainian neutrality combined with the acceptance of Russia’s theft of Ukrainian territory.

There is a fallacy here with President Putin’s attempt to save face. Any negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia will need to be accepted by the US, the European Union and all countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. One outcome might be for a negotiated agreement for the fighting to stop, and for Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine, but no agreement to relax sanctions. All this implies that Russia needs to negotiate with all stakeholders directly or indirectly involved with President Putin’s Ukrainian crisis.

Saving face with a negotiated Ukrainian settlement might still mean that President Putin fails in Russia as the impacts of the sanctions continue to negatively impact on the Russian people. Ideally sanctions must continue and must intensify irrespective of any negotiated outcome between Russia and Ukraine.

Ultimately, President Putin is between a rock and a hard place as any outcome to his Ukrainian war leads to failure. On these terms, failure means President Putin’s own personal failure that is becoming evident to the Russian people, and failure as President Putin will be side-lined in any international discussions and negotiations. This failure also includes the on-going implosion of the Russian economy. The longer sanctions are applied then the harder it will be for Russia to re-establish its former place in global transactions. In any case, the European Union’s over-dependency on Russian oil and gas is very much a pre-Ukrainian war issue. One positive outcome of President Putin’s Ukrainian gamble is that he has forced all EU countries to appreciate the dangers of being too over-dependent on one country. This has important longer-term implications for the Russian and Chinese economies. There will be perverse negative implications for the Russian economy that were not part of President Putin’s grand Ukrainian plan.

It must be recognised that President Putin’s Ukrainian war is destroying the life chances of the Russian people. There is a paradox here. The first duty of a government is the protection and safeguarding of the lives of its citizens. There is no question that President Putin has failed the Russian people and that his actions have undermined liveability and livelihoods across Russia.

For Ukraine so many people have died and been displaced and so much destroyed. Thus, the Ukrainian people must live with the long-term consequences of President Putin’s failure. But, nevertheless, whatever the outcome, the Ukrainian people have demonstrated that they are a great nation and a nation of incredibly brave people. We should all celebrate their bravery in the face of Russian aggression.

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