Federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s shine is wearing off

Justin Trudeau Photo by Chandra Bodalia
Justin Trudeau
Photo by Chandra Bodalia



All that shine around federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau seems to be wearing off as an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between November 10 and December 1 on behalf of Global News shows.

The poll of 8,268 Canadians (6,502 decided voters) shows that if an election had been held last week, the Liberals would have received 34% of the decided vote (down 4 points since September), while the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would have got 33% of the vote (up 2 points). The Liberals’ seven-point lead prior to the fall session of Parliament was just a one-point lead – in other words, a statistical tie.

The NDP under Thomas Mulcair would have received 24% of the vote (up 1 point). Fifteen percent of Canadians (15%) remained undecided.

The large sample size of the poll allowed for an examination of the vote within each of the provinces with greater statistical accuracy than a typical national poll of 1,000 respondents.

In BRITISH COLUMBIA (N=990), a three-way race showed the Conservatives (33%), NDP (30%) and Liberals (28%) all within striking distance.


Prime Minister Stephen Harper
Prime Minister Stephen Harper

TAKE a look at the figures for the other parts of the country (unweighted sample sizes for each subset of decided voters shown in brackets):

* In Ontario (N=2982), the Conservatives (37%) and Liberals (37%) were in a dead heat, with the NDP (22%) and other parties (4%) further behind.

Within the 416 region of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) (N=571), specifically, the Liberals (46%) are far in front of the NDP (26%) and Conservatives (25%) who are jockeying for a distant second.

In the surrounding 905 region of the GTA (N=641), where past elections have been won and lost, the Conservatives (41%) hold a slight advantage over the Liberals (37%), while the NDP (20%) and other parties (2%) appear outside contention.

* In Quebec (N=2150), the Liberals (32%) have a slight lead over the NDP (29%), while the Bloc (21%) and Conservatives (15%) are well behind.

* In Alberta (N=746), the Conservatives (58%), as expected, have a solid lead over the Liberals (24%) and NDP (14%).

* In Saskatchewan (N=266), the Conservatives (36%) hold a slim lead over the Liberals (32%), with the NDP behind (26%).

* In Manitoba (N=426), the Conservatives (44%) enjoy a double-digit lead over the Liberals (33%), with the NDP (20%) far behind.

* In Nova Scotia (N=331), a majority (56%) of decided voters would support the Liberals, who have a daunting lead over the Conservatives (24%), NDP (18%), and other (1%) parties.

* In New Brunswick (N=237), the Liberals (46%) are way out in front of the Tories (29%), NDP (19%), and other (5%) parties.

* In Newfoundland and Labrador (N=99, *small sample size), decided voters are three times as likely to support the Liberals (59%) than the Conservatives (20%) or NDP (19%), while handfuls would support other (3%) parties.

* In Prince Edward Island (N=41, *very small sample size), the Liberals (40%) and Conservatives (38%) sit neck-and-neck, ahead of the NDP (22%).