Federal Liberals still rock as Conservative message has no effect on Trudeau: Forum Poll

Justin Trudeau
Photo by Sukhwant Singh Dhillon

IF an election were held today, four in 10 (42%) say they would support the Liberals, according to a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll amongst 1,150 Canadian voters who are decided and leaning.

More than a third (35%) say they would support the Conservatives, and just over one in 10 (14%) say they would support the NDP. The Green party (4%) and the Bloc Quebécois (4%) follow behind, with ‘other’ parties securing (1%).

The Liberals would increase their majority to 211, with the Conservatives winning 105 seats, the NDP 16, the BQ 5, and the Green 1.

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 65 and over (65%), female (48%), earning $100,000-$250,000 (50%), living in the Atlantic provinces (56%), and have a college / university (44%) or post-graduate (44%) degree.

Respondents most likely to support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (44%), male (44%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (35%), $60,000-$80,000 (35%), or $80,000-$100,000 (37%), and living in Alberta (57%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (18%) or 55-64 (14%), living in British Columbia (21%), and having a post-graduate degree (22%).


Trudeau approval stable


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s net favourable score is stable over the summer. Almost half (49%) say they approve of his performance so far, while just over four in 10 (42%) say they disapprove. His net favourable score remains +7. Only a small proportion of voters (10%) say they do not know.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (25%) of voters and disapproval at the same proportion (26%). His net favourable score is -1. Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (48%) saying they do not know.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair sees an approval of more than a third (36%) and his disapproval is just under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (34%) say they do not know about his performance. His net favourable score is equal to Trudeau at +7.


Trudeau still seen by plurality as the best PM


Almost 4 in 10 see Trudeau (39%) as the best PM.

Scheer is seen by fewer than 2 in 10 (18%) as the best PM, and Tom Mulcair is favoured by only 1 in 10 (10%).

“For the most part, the numbers for both the leaders and their parties have remained consistent throughout the summer. As the start of the fall legislative session nears, we may expect some upheaval in these numbers as MPs get back to work, but for now Justin Trudeau holds a favourable edge over both his main rivals,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.